the bubble burst

I find myself in yet another 5 star soulless business hotel at yet another financial/ banking conference. There appears to be a hard core group of 15 bankers on the permanent conference circuit, or the “rubber chicken circuit” as my father used to call it, after having been served a few too many rubbery platters in his day. But these same 15 guys (for they are all men) show up at every event, in every country. They recognise me now, and sometimes nod as I walk in. As I am often the only youngish female in attendance, I suppose I am rather noticeable! Over the past 4 months the tone in these conferences has changed rather dramatically. In June there was still the hope that Europe would escape the worst of the credit crunch, and that Russia would be unaffected completely. We all know now that this will not be the case- things are bad and they are set to get much worse. Reports suggest that several times over the past month, the British banking sector has come close to complete collapse. Iceland, once the model, has gone under completely. Russia has weather the crisis worse than most other emerging markets, yet even China has started to wobble this week. In short, things are bad, and the projected recovery dates are receding further into the horizon. The head of Credit Suisse estimated things would stabilise by the end of 2010, with recovery beginning in 2011. Ernst and Young’s recent report also has pushed recovery dates back to 2011. In a similar investment conference I attended in June, these same guys were talking about the end of 2009 as the date by which things would be back to normal. Today, one speaker claimed that possible half of all Russian banks will go over in the near future. Several Western ones are already gone.
And unemployment is rising. In Britain, it is anticipated that it will reach 2 million by this Christmas, and 3 million by next Christmas. So Europe has not escaped. No one has: even Canada, where the leaders saw clearly what was coming and took strict measures to protect their banks, is not safe. The banks might be in better shape, but Canadian industries are among the hardest hit, thanks to their economic ties with their southern neighbour.
I listen to the gloom and doom with half an ear, wondering what the free lunch will include. I like when they serve wine at lunch, it helps make the rest of the afternoon go more quickly, as I discretely snooze with my eyes open in the back….i have heard all the figures already, I know things are bad, and I can only feign attention for so long.